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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd