Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.